Political Crisis in Georgia - Current Developments, Causes, Reactions, & Outlook

Current Situation in Georgia

Georgia is embroiled in a significant political crisis marked by widespread protests, allegations of democratic backsliding, and deepening polarization between the government and opposition. The situation intensified following the December 14, 2024, presidential election, where Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former footballer and member of the ruling Georgian Dream party, was elected as president through an electoral college system. This process, the first of its kind in Georgia's history, replaced direct presidential elections as a result of constitutional amendments passed in 2018.

The opposition, led by outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili and pro-European political forces, has refused to recognize the election's legitimacy, citing alleged fraud and government manipulation in both the presidential election and the October 26 parliamentary elections. Protests have been ongoing for weeks, with demonstrators criticizing the Georgian Dream party’s governance, its alignment with Moscow, and its decision to delay EU accession talks until 2028. Police crackdowns on protests have resulted in over 400 arrests, fueling further unrest.

President Zourabichvili has declared her intention to remain in office until new parliamentary elections are held, describing the current legislature as illegitimate. Meanwhile, the ruling party continues to assert its control, with its leaders defending the legitimacy of the elections and dismissing opposition demands as destabilizing.

Root Causes of the Crisis

The crisis is rooted in several interconnected factors. Firstly, the transition to a parliamentary system under constitutional amendments has concentrated power within the ruling Georgian Dream party. The indirect election of the president by a 300-member electoral college, dominated by Georgian Dream, has been widely criticized as undemocratic. This shift reduced direct public participation and fueled suspicions of manipulation, especially given the party's track record of consolidating control over key institutions.

Secondly, the October 26 parliamentary elections, which secured Georgian Dream a majority with 53.93% of the vote, have been marred by accusations of fraud, including vote-buying and irregularities. Opposition parties and international observers have described the elections as lacking transparency.

Additionally, Georgian Dream’s policies, including postponing EU accession talks and adopting laws that mirror Kremlin-style restrictions on media and civil society, have alienated large sections of the population. These policies reflect a broader alignment with Moscow, driven by the party's founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire with strong ties to Russia.

The combination of democratic erosion, perceived pro-Russian policies, and public dissatisfaction with delayed EU integration has created fertile ground for the current unrest.

International Reactions

The international community has reacted strongly to the developments in Georgia. Western governments and organizations have expressed deep concern over the country’s democratic regression. The European Union, which granted Georgia candidate status for EU accession in 2023, has paused the process and cut financial support following the passage of restrictive “foreign agent” laws. French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the Georgian public directly, reaffirming support for their European aspirations and condemning the government’s authoritarian drift. Macron’s decision to speak with Ivanishvili rather than Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze underscored the West’s skepticism about the legitimacy of the current government.

The United States has imposed visa sanctions on 20 Georgian officials accused of undermining democracy. The UK has suspended all support programs for the Georgian government, including defense cooperation, citing "shocking scenes of violence" against protesters. Estonia has sanctioned 14 officials, including the prime minister, in response to the violent crackdown on protests.

These international measures reflect a growing consensus that Georgia’s ruling party is deviating from democratic principles and aligning itself with Moscow, despite public support for EU integration.

Analysis and Future Outlook

The political crisis in Georgia is unlikely to abate in the short term. The ruling Georgian Dream party has shown no willingness to heed opposition demands or hold new elections, instead doubling down on its control through institutional mechanisms. The indirect presidential election, while procedurally valid, further entrenches the party’s dominance and deepens public distrust.

The opposition, led by Zourabichvili, remains fragmented and lacks the organizational strength to mount a cohesive challenge. While protests have been sustained and widespread, their impact has been limited by heavy-handed government responses, including police crackdowns and new legal restrictions on demonstrations. The opposition’s rejection of both the presidential and parliamentary elections ensures continued political deadlock, with Zourabichvili’s defiance symbolizing a broader resistance to Georgian Dream’s governance.

International pressure, while significant, may have limited short-term effects. Sanctions and the suspension of financial support are symbolic but do not address the structural issues within Georgia’s political system. The government’s alignment with Moscow could deepen if Western measures are perceived as punitive rather than constructive. However, sustained international support for Georgian civil society and democratic forces could help counterbalance the government’s authoritarian drift.

Looking ahead, Georgia faces two potential scenarios. In the first, the government maintains its current course, using institutional control and international disengagement to cement its power while navigating closer ties with Russia. This would likely lead to prolonged unrest, international isolation, and diminished prospects for EU integration.

In the second, sustained public pressure, combined with strategic international engagement, forces the government to make concessions, such as holding new elections or introducing reforms to restore democratic norms. This outcome, while more favorable for Georgia’s democratic future, would require a significant shift in the ruling party’s approach and stronger coordination among opposition forces.

The crisis underscores the fragility of Georgia’s democratic institutions and the challenges of balancing domestic governance with competing geopolitical pressures. The country’s future hinges on its ability to reconcile these tensions and align its political trajectory with the aspirations of its people. For now, however, Georgia remains at a crossroads, with its democratic and European ambitions hanging in the balance.