Operation Rising Lion and the Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an extensive and unprecedented military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Rising Lion. This assault, initiated under the directive of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, represents the most significant Israeli military engagement against Iran to date. It marks a culmination of years of mounting tensions, deep-rooted hostilities, and unrelenting fears surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions.

For decades, Netanyahu has viewed Iran’s nuclear program as the most serious existential threat to the State of Israel. Inspired by the precedent of the 1981 Israeli attack on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor under Menachem Begin, Netanyahu has consistently argued for proactive military deterrence. His opportunity arrived in June 2025, amidst a confluence of strategic openings: diminished Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria, reduced capacity of Hezbollah, increasing public frustration within Iran, and renewed political alignment with the United States under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

The Israeli operation targeted a broad swathe of strategic Iranian assets including nuclear enrichment facilities, ballistic missile launchers, command centers, energy infrastructure, and the leadership of Iran’s military and scientific establishment. The air campaign involved over 200 fighter jets in coordinated multi-wave strikes that reached deep into Iranian territory, including Tehran, Natanz, Isfahan, and Shiraz.

Key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow, which house enriched uranium stockpiles and advanced centrifuges, were heavily bombarded. Israel also deployed drones and missiles to cripple Iranian air defenses and missile batteries. Among the most devastating outcomes of the initial strike was the assassination of several top-ranking Iranian figures. Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff; Major General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); and key figures like Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s successors in Iran’s nuclear program, were all killed. The Israeli strikes were interpreted not only as an effort to delay Iran’s nuclear timeline, but also to decapitate the strategic and operational leadership of the Iranian regime.

Iran retaliated within hours, launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israeli cities and infrastructure, including power and fuel facilities in central Israel. While Israel's Iron Dome and other missile defense systems intercepted many of the incoming threats, not all were thwarted. Iran successfully struck Haifa's refinery and caused significant disruption to Israel's power grid. Iranian missiles even managed to hit military installations such as the Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases. The strikes led to the deaths of 13 civilians and injuries to hundreds more across Israel, while Iranian reports indicated at least 78 dead and over 320 injured on their side.

Operation Rising Lion has ignited a broader geopolitical crisis. Trump’s administration, while not directly involved in the initial Israeli attacks, has provided intelligence and defense support. Trump has simultaneously endorsed Israel’s right to act and advocated for renewed diplomacy, though his willingness to broker a nuclear deal is tempered by pressures from pro-Israel factions and hardline Republicans urging full U.S. military involvement. The United States is now entangled more deeply than it anticipated, as Trump balances between avoiding a protracted conflict and asserting American strength.

Meanwhile, the economic reverberations are being felt worldwide. Oil prices have surged due to fears of disruption to global oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transits. The potential closure of the strait or a direct attack on Gulf oil infrastructure could catapult oil prices beyond $120 per barrel, possibly even reaching $300 according to Iraqi forecasts, thereby triggering inflation and economic instability, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Iran's internal situation is growing more precarious. The regime, already facing domestic dissent and economic hardship, is further strained by the loss of senior military and scientific leaders. While some Iranians have expressed anger at the regime's failures, others have rallied in defiance against Israeli aggression. The leadership has scrambled to appoint replacements in rapid succession, indicating an attempt to prevent a power vacuum. Nonetheless, cracks in Iran’s political and military institutions may widen as the crisis deepens.

In a significant diplomatic development, Iran has officially ceased its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), refusing to report on nuclear activities and suggesting it may resume clandestine operations. The IAEA has confirmed structural damage at several Iranian facilities, including the uranium conversion center in Isfahan. Yet, radiation levels remain stable, and the full extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear progress is still being assessed.

Regionally, the repercussions are unpredictable. Iran could escalate by striking U.S. bases or Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yemen's Houthi movement has also been drawn into the fray, with Israeli strikes reportedly targeting a senior Yemeni military commander in Sana’a. Such widening of the conflict threatens to embroil the entire Middle East in a protracted war. Already, Britain has announced the redeployment of military assets to the region, and other powers are on high alert.

Netanyahu’s strategic objectives appear twofold: to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to engineer regime change by weakening Iran’s leadership. However, the sustainability and success of this approach are far from assured. The Iranian nuclear infrastructure is deeply buried and widely dispersed, making it nearly impossible to fully destroy through air power alone. Furthermore, Israeli strikes risk alienating Gulf states and jeopardizing emerging economic ties in the region, especially if civilian casualties increase.

The Iranian leadership, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, faces a historic decision. It can seek escalation, risking catastrophic military and economic consequences, or pursue a negotiated settlement, which would require concessions it has long resisted. Trump’s administration continues to signal readiness for a deal, yet has made clear that no agreement will be viable if Iran continues its nuclear enrichment and refuses international inspections.

In the latest developments, Iran has employed hypersonic missiles, escalating the technological dimension of the conflict. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its aerial operations to energy and defense ministry facilities in Tehran. Amid the intensifying violence, key diplomatic efforts such as Iran-U.S. nuclear talks in Oman have been postponed, and trust in international mediation has eroded.

In conclusion, the Israel-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous new phase with regional and global ramifications. Operation Rising Lion may have inflicted significant tactical setbacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military hierarchy, but it has also triggered a spiral of retaliation that risks broader war. The military, economic, and political costs are mounting, and the future remains uncertain. What is clear is that both nations, and indeed the wider international community, are now standing at the precipice of a conflict that could reshape the Middle East and global security for years to come.