Brussels · Independent · Founded 2016

Dependence is not the same thing as vulnerability.

We study the difference — in energy systems, in supply corridors, and in the infrastructure that states assume will keep working. Our assessments say how confident we are, and why.

Read the assessments Commission work

Six bands, three to a side, divided by one line. The two sides do not line up — nor, on this site, do the columns.

Current assessment

Filed 13 Oct 2026

From Central Asia to Caspian: Azerbaijan’s Integration in Regional Geopolitics

The expansion of the Central Asian consultative format to include Azerbaijan (which will take the Chairmanship for 2027) creates new opportunities for regional connectivity, economic integration and strategic diversification. Its long-term significance, however, will depend on whether political commitments translate into functioning transport networks, joint industries and measurable economic benefits.

Read the assessment

Also on file

002
India in Central Asia: Strategic autonomy in Eurasia’s changing geopolitics?
blog · 30 Sept 2026
003
The Guarantor Steps Back: the Gulf states after American primacy
blog · 24 Sept 2026
004
The Saudi Kingdom Has No Way Out
research · 13 Sept 2026

All publications

What we study

01
Energy security and weaponised interdependence
02
Chokepoints, corridors and the limits of rerouting
03
The South Caucasus and the Caspian order
04
Critical infrastructure under hybrid pressure

How we work

Every claim we publish carries a confidence grade and a named source. Where a figure rests on an institution describing its own performance, we say so, and we grade it lower.

That sounds obvious. It is not what the field does. We have traced headline statistics repeated for a decade back to a single official’s magazine article, and re-graded our own conclusions accordingly.

The test we apply

Not how many routes a state holds, but how many of them one adversary can reach.