Outcomes of the China-Central Asia Summit in Astana

The Second China-Central Asia Summit (aka, C+C5 format), held on June 16-17 in Astana, confirmed the course towards deepening Beijing's ties with the countries of the region. Central Asia has formed a zone of multipolar competition between Russia, China, the EU and the US. The primary focus of the event was the development of cooperation between the states of the region and China: from economics to infrastructure and security.

Following the summit, the heads of state signed and adopted documents such as the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation and the Astana Declaration of the Second Central Asia-China Summit.

The following list of agreements were signed:

Memorandum of Cooperation between the Industrial Departments of the Central Asian Countries and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China;
Action Plan between the Ministries of Economy and Trade of the Central Asia-China Countries to Strengthen Trade and Economic Cooperation;
Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministries of Economy and Trade of the Central Asia-China Countries to Deepen Cooperation in the Field of Unimpeded Trade;
Memorandum of Understanding on Strengthening Investment Cooperation in the Field of "Green Minerals" of the Central Asia-China Countries;
Memorandum on Deepening Cooperation on Express Railways "China-Central Asia-Europe";
Action Plan for the High-Quality Implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative between China and the Central Asian Countries;
Initiative to create favorable conditions for mutual travel of citizens within the framework of the "Central Asia - China" format;
Program of joint cultural and humanitarian events for 2025-2026.
Memorandum of Understanding between the Customs Services of the Central Asian countries and the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China on cooperation in the field of customs risk management;
Memorandum of Understanding between the Customs Services of the Central Asian countries and the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China on technical cooperation in the field of non-intrusive inspection and intelligent image recognition;
Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the field of simplification of issuance of permits for international transport between China and Central Asia;
Memorandum of Understanding between the transport authorities of China and Central Asia on strengthening cooperation on humanitarian exchanges in the field of sustainable transport.
Twinning relations have also been established between regions of Central Asian countries and China, including between Bishkek and Sichuan Province.

Particular attention was paid to the modernization of infrastructure and the launch of new transport corridors. Among them is the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. New flights and visa facilitation are also planned.

More than 1.5 billion yuan have been allocated for the implementation of joint projects. Cooperation centers on education, poverty alleviation, trade and ecology have already begun operating in the region.

At the same time, China is actively trying to reduce its transit dependence on Russia. China is promoting alternative routes and creating permanent coordination mechanisms - a secretariat and working groups.

In addition, the humanitarian component of cooperation is expanding. The number of student exchanges, environmental initiatives and social programs is growing.

According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, by mid-2025, trade turnover between China and Central Asia has grown by about 10.4%. It has reached almost 40 billion dollars.

For Kyrgyzstan, this partnership opens up important economic opportunities. The launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is estimated to bring the country about 200 million dollars a year from transit payments.

The modernization of the North-South highway, costing about 850 million dollars, will significantly improve transport connectivity.

In the social sphere, China and the UN have begun deliveries of fortified foods - flour, oil, rice and lentils. Aid is being sent to more than 300 schools in the southern regions of Kyrgyzstan. It is expected that the program will cover more than 100 thousand schoolchildren.

However, along with the benefits, there are also risks. First of all, the growth of economic dependence on Chinese loans and technologies. In addition, technical and administrative difficulties in implementing large projects remain.

The society remains sensitive to the strengthening of Chinese influence. Protests against individual Chinese projects have been repeatedly observed in Kyrgyzstan.

In this context, Russia's reaction to China's activity remains restrained, but wary. In recent years, the volume of Russian investment has decreased, and trade turnover has fallen by 15-20%.

In Moscow, the "Central Asia - China" format is most likely viewed as an alternative track that can weaken the EAEU.

There is a possibility of maintaining a pragmatic division of roles. China invests in infrastructure. Russia is responsible for security and cultural unity.

The "Central Asia - China" format continues to gain stability. However, the internal political situation in a number of countries in the region remains vulnerable. In the event of serious political changes, the development of the partnership may slow down.

Against this backdrop, the US and EU are actively increasing their involvement in the region. The West is developing the “5+1” format, as well as its own infrastructure initiatives and programs.

There is growing interest in the region’s strategic resources — cobalt, lithium, and rare earth minerals. Competition for influence in the region will certainly grow in the coming years.

The Astana summit showed that China has reached a new level of interaction with Central Asia. Economic, infrastructure, and political cooperation is being strengthened by an institutional framework.

Record growth in trade turnover, major projects, and humanitarian programs can secure Beijing’s long-term presence in the region.

However, the risk of dependence on Beijing and geopolitical challenges are also growing.

The Astana agreements will likely become an important stage in economic cooperation. However, there is a difficult geopolitical game ahead.

In this context, the next two years will show how effectively the countries of the region will be able to use new opportunities and maintain their own stability.

Erkinbek Kamalov