Research
When Diplomacy Meets Deterrence: Inside the Latest US–Iran Standoff
February 5, 2026This report examines the fragile return of US–Iran negotiations amid escalating military pressure, regional mediation, and deep mutual mistrust. It analyses how diplomacy has resumed not as a sign of de-escalation, but as a last-ditch effort to avert a wider conflict, as both sides test each other’s red lines on nuclear constraints, missiles, regional influence, and internal repression. The report situates the talks within Iran’s internal unrest, the US military buildup in the region, and mounting fears among regional states that miscalculation could trigger an uncontrollable war stretching far beyond Iran itself.
Greenland and the End of Illusions in the Transatlantic Alliance
January 23, 2026Greenland has emerged as an unlikely flashpoint in global politics. This report explores how US pressure over Greenland is reshaping transatlantic relations, accelerating Europe’s turn toward economic security, and intensifying competition with China and Russia in the Arctic. It shows how a dispute over sovereignty risks undermining NATO, weaponising trade, and eroding the rules-based order at a moment of mounting geopolitical instability.
The Russia–Ukraine War in 2026: Military Pressure and Diplomatic Uncertainty
January 10, 2026This report examines the state of the Russia–Ukraine war in early 2026, analysing ongoing military operations, renewed diplomatic efforts, and evolving European security responses. It assesses the interaction between battlefield dynamics and peace initiatives, the implications of proposed postwar security arrangements, and the broader consequences for the European security order amid continued escalation and strategic uncertainty.
U.S.-Iran Negotiations and the Broader Middle Eastern Landscape
May 5, 2025This paper explores the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations, focusing on the shifting geopolitical landscape, the intricacies of nuclear diplomacy, and the strategic calculations of both nations in the context of regional security. It examines the impact of Donald Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran, and analyzes the critical negotiations and challenges surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Additionally, it investigates the broader implications of these diplomatic efforts, particularly the regional responses and the internal political dynamics within both the U.S. and Iran. This paper argues that while the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran face significant obstacles, diplomatic engagement offers a more sustainable path compared to the alternative of military conflict or a nuclear-armed Iran.
From the Fall of the Syrian Arab Republic to Genocide: Lessons for Central Asia
April 5, 2025This article explores the lessons for Central Asia drawn from the geopolitical dynamics and conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. It examines the rapid technological changes in modern warfare and the complex international contradictions that influence regional stability. The author highlights the key threats faced by Kyrgyzstan and Central Asian countries, including military challenges, radicalization, and external pressures. The article also provides policy recommendations for defense modernization, regional cooperation, and economic development to enhance stability and security in the region. Through these lessons, the article underscores the importance of adapting to technological advancements and strengthening regional ties for a more secure future.