Blog
The Empty Offer: Latest on Russia-Ukraine War
May 23, 2026On May 9, surrounded by the pageantry of Russia's 81st Victory Day, Vladimir Putin stepped before reporters in Moscow and announced that the war in Ukraine was "coming to an end." He said he was ready to meet Volodymyr Zelensky — in Moscow, or in a neutral country, any time. It sounded, on the surface, like an opening. Read the fine print and it was something else entirely: Putin would meet Zelensky only once the final terms of a settlement had already been agreed. The meeting he was offering was not a negotiation. It was a signing ceremony for a deal Ukraine had not made and would not make. That empty offer is the image that defines May 2026. The choreography of diplomacy performed with full conviction; the architecture of peace absent. Three tracks — military, diplomatic, and geopolitical — moved at once in this period, and in opposing directions. Reading them together is the clearest guide to what comes next.
The Iran Ceasefire: A Pause, Not a Settlement
April 19, 2026This article examines the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States as a temporary pause rather than a lasting settlement. It argues that despite severe military and economic pressure, Iran has not abandoned its core red lines on uranium enrichment, missiles, and strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz, while the post-war consolidation of hardline power has made diplomacy even more difficult. By exploring the limits of coercion, the risks of renewed escalation, and the narrow path toward a workable agreement, the article shows why the next phase of the crisis may be decided less by battlefield outcomes than by endurance, leverage, and political realism.
The Islamabad Deadlock: U.S.–Iran Negotiations Under Ceasefire
April 12, 2026This article examines the Islamabad meeting between the United States and Iran as a politically significant but inconclusive attempt to manage a dangerous postwar crisis. It argues that the talks stalled because both sides entered with incompatible assumptions about leverage, sovereignty, and acceptable compromise, while Pakistan emerged as an important mediator that helped preserve diplomacy without resolving the core disputes.
The Iran War After the Ceasefire
April 10, 2026This analytical report examines the post-ceasefire phase of the Iran war, focusing on the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz, the Lebanon front, Gulf security vulnerabilities, Israel’s evolving position, and the broader regional and global consequences of the conflict.
The US-Iran War and Iran’s War of Attrition
April 3, 2026This report argues that the conflict has moved beyond its initial shock phase and entered a more dangerous stage defined by attrition, infrastructure warfare, and regional cost imposition. It explains why severe strikes on Iran have not produced decisive strategic control, why Hormuz remains the center of gravity, and why the war is drifting toward a longer and less controllable regional confrontation.