Blog
Trump’s Bold Gambit: Redrawing the Middle East Chessboard
January 20, 2025This report explores the transformative role of Donald Trump’s diplomacy in the Middle East, focusing on his influence in brokering key ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon ahead of his second term as U.S. President. It delves into the challenges of Gaza’s post-war reconstruction, the fragile dynamics of its governance, and the broader implications for regional alliances, including a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. The analysis highlights the interplay of political, economic, and diplomatic forces reshaping the region while addressing the risks of empowering hardline actors and the obstacles to achieving lasting peace.
The End of Ukrainian Gas Transit and the Energy Crisis in Moldova
January 14, 2025This report explores the geopolitical impact of Russia's halt of gas transit through Ukraine, focusing on the resulting energy crisis in Moldova and Transnistria. It analyzes Moscow's strategic use of energy supplies to weaken pro-Western governments and reshape regional dynamics, highlighting the political challenges Moldova faces ahead of critical elections in 2025.
Geopolitical Analysis of the Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash in Kazakhstan
December 28, 2024This report provides a comprehensive geopolitical analysis of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. It examines the technical, geopolitical, and aviation safety factors surrounding the incident, including allegations of Russian air defense involvement, its impact on regional relations, and broader implications for aviation security in conflict zones. The report consolidates findings from multiple sources and highlights the critical interplay between civil aviation and military operations in volatile regions.
Political Crisis in Georgia - Current Developments, Causes, Reactions, & Outlook
December 16, 2024This report examines Georgia's escalating political crisis following the controversial election of Mikheil Kavelashvili as president through an indirect electoral college system dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. It explores the root causes, including allegations of electoral fraud, democratic backsliding, and the postponement of EU accession talks, which have fueled nationwide protests. The report highlights strong international condemnation, including sanctions and diplomatic pressure from Western allies, and analyzes the potential outcomes, ranging from continued authoritarian consolidation to possible concessions under sustained public and international pressure. Georgia's future remains uncertain, with its democratic and European aspirations at stake.
Iran’s Asymmetric Warfare Strategy: Evolution, Achievements, and Challenges
December 14, 2024This analytical piece examines Iran's asymmetric warfare strategy, a pivotal component of its regional and global ambitions. Tracing its origins to the aftermath of the 1979 revolution and the Iran-Iraq War, the article explores how Tehran crafted this approach to offset its conventional military weaknesses. It delves into the design, goals, and successes of this strategy, including the use of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as its reliance on hybrid tactics such as missile development and cyber operations. The article critically assesses the recent challenges faced by Iran, including the weakening of its proxies, economic constraints, and shifting regional dynamics, offering insights into the future viability of its strategy in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.