Trump’s Bold Gambit: Redrawing the Middle East Chessboard

Introduction

The Middle East is undergoing significant shifts, influenced by the re-emergence of Donald Trump as a pivotal actor in the region’s politics. Even before his inauguration as U.S. President on January 20, 2025, Trump’s diplomatic pressure has been instrumental in securing key ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza. These developments have reduced immediate conflict but underscore persistent challenges in governance, reconstruction, and broader regional diplomacy.

Trump’s Impact on Regional Dynamics

Donald Trump’s influence was key in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on January 15, 2025, following a similar agreement in Lebanon. These deals highlight Trump’s ability to apply pressure on regional actors, particularly Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who has shifted from a hardline stance under this influence. Trump’s strategy appears geared toward leveraging these agreements to strengthen alliances against Iran. His administration’s goal is to create a coalition of Middle Eastern states to counter Iranian influence, with Saudi Arabia playing a central role. Netanyahu’s willingness to engage in ceasefire agreements has caused friction within his right-wing coalition. This dynamic could reshape Israeli domestic politics, as Netanyahu faces pressure to balance international expectations and the demands of his hard-right allies.

Challenges in Gaza

Gaza’s post-war landscape poses significant hurdles. With an estimated 40 million tonnes of debris and hundreds of thousands of destroyed homes, reconstruction could take until 2040. Hamas’s continued dominance deters Western and Arab donors from funding reconstruction efforts. Alternatives like the Palestinian Authority lack the capacity to govern effectively. The fragile ceasefire is another major concern. Hamas’s leadership transition, with figures like Muhammad Sinwar emerging, introduces internal divisions that could destabilize the truce. Without a clear governance framework, the ceasefire risks being temporary, perpetuating Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.

Saudi-Israeli Normalization: Prospects and Challenges

A potential Saudi-Israeli agreement could significantly reshape alliances against Iran, but it hinges on concessions for Palestinians, such as a credible commitment to statehood. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is open to normalizing relations with Israel, seeing it as a pathway to stronger ties with the U.S. However, this depends on credible progress on Palestinian statehood. The prospect of normalization is complicated by domestic opposition, economic challenges, and widespread regional support for the Palestinian cause. The use of annexation threats by Israel as a negotiation tactic risks escalating tensions and alienating Saudi Arabia.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

Trump’s strategy includes applying maximum pressure on Iran, aiming to weaken its influence and curb its nuclear ambitions. Recent setbacks for Iranian-backed groups, such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, align with this goal. The U.S. under Trump’s leadership is poised to play an assertive role in shaping Middle Eastern alliances and outcomes. However, empowering Israel’s hard right risks reigniting Palestinian unrest, destabilizing the region, and alienating key Arab partners. Gaza’s rebuilding requires substantial international support, yet donors remain hesitant due to Hamas’s dominance. A sustainable solution demands both security guarantees and a credible governance framework to facilitate reconstruction and reduce reliance on foreign aid.