Iran–Israel Confrontation after the UN Snapback Sanctions

Introduction

The reimposition of United Nations sanctions on Iran in September 2025 has intensified the confrontation between Tehran and Jerusalem. What had already been a volatile conflict following the 12-day war in June has now entered a new and highly unstable phase. Israel has raised its security alert, warning of the risk of Iranian miscalculation, while Tehran has responded with defiance, threatening both Israel and the United States, hinting at expanding its missile range, and accelerating executions of alleged Mossad agents. Against this backdrop, broader geopolitical currents—most notably China’s quiet support for Iran’s missile and air-defense rehabilitation and Russia’s diplomatic protection—complicate efforts to stabilize the situation. This paper examines the strategic dynamics now at play, the shifting military and intelligence balance, and the diplomatic and domestic pressures shaping both Iran and Israel.

The Nuclear File and the Collapse of the JCPOA Framework

The 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is today an empty shell. The United States’ withdrawal in 2018 set in motion a steady unraveling, and by 2025 the International Atomic Energy Agency was reporting Iranian uranium stockpiles of more than 8,400 kilograms, including roughly 409 kilograms enriched to 60 percent—just short of weapons grade. The European powers, after years of reluctance, finally invoked the snapback mechanism in late August, restoring the full weight of UN sanctions before the provision expired. This decision was motivated by Iran’s continued non-compliance and the risk that Russia, assuming the presidency of the Security Council, would block future action.

Iran now faces a dilemma. Within parliament, hardliners are pressing for withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and for ending cooperation with the IAEA, a course of action that would be interpreted internationally as a clear signal of weaponization. The government has so far balanced this rhetoric with ambiguity, suggesting that it might continue to engage in diplomacy while publicly downplaying the sanctions’ impact. Yet the damage to its economy is already evident, with the rial plummeting to an all-time low and inflation climbing above 40 percent. Israel, for its part, insists that Iran could break out to a nuclear weapon within a year if it chooses, a timeline made more troubling by the lack of international inspections at key facilities since the summer strikes.

Military Dynamics: Missiles, Air Defense, and the Balance of Power

The June 2025 conflict revealed both Iran’s growing missile capability and Israel’s enduring defensive strengths. Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 1,100 drones at Israeli territory. While most were intercepted, more than thirty missiles and one drone struck populated areas, killing thirty-one Israelis, injuring thousands, and displacing over 13,000. These attacks exposed the limits of Israel’s multilayered defense architecture, even as the IDF’s strikes on Iranian nuclear, military, and leadership targets were widely portrayed as devastating.

In response to these vulnerabilities, Iran has begun hinting that it will extend the range of its missiles beyond the current self-imposed limit of 2,000 kilometers. Iranian commanders argue that deeper launch sites in the country’s eastern provinces, made necessary after Israeli raids on western facilities, require longer-range missiles. This posture directly threatens not only Israel but potentially European targets.

Reports of discreet Chinese shipments of advanced components, including solid-fuel precursors, guidance systems, and HQ-9B surface-to-air missile systems, suggest that Iran’s missile and air-defense capabilities may be recovering more quickly than expected. For Israel, this creates a serious dilemma. Striking Iranian targets supplied by Russia carries familiar risks, but striking Chinese consignments could trigger a major geopolitical rupture with Beijing. Consequently, Israel is likely to rely on covert sabotage and backchannel diplomacy to limit China’s role while accelerating its own missile defense programs, including Arrow upgrades and directed-energy systems.

Intelligence and Espionage: A Growing Gray-Zone Conflict

Parallel to the open military confrontation is an intensifying intelligence war. Iran has executed at least ten individuals accused of working with Mossad in recent months, including Bahman Choobi-asl, described as one of Israel’s most important spies in the country. Tehran claimed that Choobi-asl, a database specialist, provided Mossad with access to government systems, data centers, and information about telecommunications and electronics imports. His execution followed a string of similar cases, underscoring Iran’s reliance on high-profile hangings to demonstrate vigilance and deter collaboration.

In Israel, authorities are confronting a surge in Iranian recruitment attempts. Hundreds of citizens recently received phone calls in Hebrew, allegedly from Iranian intelligence, offering “competitive salaries” for espionage. Other efforts have taken place through Telegram and other social media platforms, often with cryptocurrency payments. Arrests of Israelis suspected of espionage—including a dual American-Israeli, Yaakov Perl, who allegedly surveilled senior officials on Iran’s behalf—reflect the success of Tehran’s mass, low-cost recruitment tactics. These efforts appear designed not to recruit elite operatives but to cast a wide net, overwhelming Israel’s counterintelligence apparatus and extracting whatever intelligence is feasible.

Domestic Iranian Pressures

Internally, Iran is grappling with acute economic strain and political hardening. The snapback sanctions affect all major sectors, from energy and banking to arms procurement. The rial’s freefall has worsened purchasing power, and ordinary Iranians expect higher prices and shortages. Although reformist outlets warn of crisis, hardliners celebrate the JCPOA’s demise as proof of their long-standing critique that engagement with the West was a “pure loss.” In this atmosphere, executions have surged, not only of alleged spies but also of dissidents and protesters. Human rights groups estimate that over 1,000 people have been executed in 2025, a pace unseen since the end of the Iran–Iraq war in 1988. This resort to repression reflects both the regime’s fragility and its unwillingness to compromise.

Israeli Strategic Posture

For Israel, the period since the June war has been one of heightened vigilance and deliberate signaling. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the UN General Assembly emphasized that Israel had crippled Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while warning against international recognition of a Palestinian state. His speech portrayed the conflict as existential, casting Iran’s “terror axis” as a global menace. Israeli officials stress that, despite recent setbacks, Iran remains a powerful adversary capable of rebuilding its programs.

Operationally, Israel has adopted a multi-pronged approach: intensifying intelligence-gathering to detect Iranian rebuilding, applying diplomatic pressure on Russia and China to curtail support, and accelerating its technological edge through missile-defense innovation. Domestically, it has expanded prison capacity for Iranian-linked spies and issued repeated public advisories to guard against recruitment schemes.

The Role of External Actors

The United States and European powers remain committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but their options are limited. Washington urges Tehran to accept direct talks, while Britain, France, and Germany call for restraint alongside the sanctions. Russia and China reject the legality of the snapback and deepen their partnerships with Iran, with Moscow signing a $25 billion nuclear deal and Beijing continuing to import Iranian oil at discounted prices. Regional states, particularly in the Gulf, share Israel’s concerns over Iran’s missile arsenal but tread cautiously, wary of escalation and of jeopardizing economic ties with China.

Possible Trajectories

The conflict could take several forms in the months ahead. The most likely outcome is managed confrontation: sanctions will bite unevenly, Iran will rebuild selectively, and both sides will continue espionage and covert actions without escalating into full war. However, the risk of an escalatory spiral remains real. A miscalculated strike or assassination could lead to renewed missile barrages and potentially draw in the United States, given Tehran’s explicit warnings.

A more optimistic but less probable scenario involves a diplomatic holding pattern, with backchannel talks mediated by Oman or Qatar leading to partial monitoring arrangements. Conversely, a darker scenario would see Iran pursue nuclear breakout, reducing transparency and enriching further, betting that the West is too divided to respond forcefully. In each case, ambiguity about the true state of Iran’s nuclear facilities complicates decision-making, creating conditions for crisis mismanagement.

Conclusion

The confrontation between Iran and Israel in late 2025 has entered a dangerous and unpredictable phase. The snapback sanctions mark the end of the JCPOA era and the beginning of a new period of coercion and resistance. Iran faces mounting economic pressure and international isolation but remains determined to expand its missile capabilities and deter further Israeli strikes. Israel, though confident in its military edge, must prepare for the possibility that Iran could rebuild faster than expected, especially with Chinese assistance.

At the heart of the crisis lies uncertainty: uncertainty about the extent of damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program, about Tehran’s willingness to escalate, and about the international community’s capacity to enforce sanctions. This ambiguity makes miscalculation more likely. Without a credible diplomatic framework or reliable inspection regime, both sides may increasingly act on worst-case assumptions, raising the risk of renewed confrontation.

In this fragile environment, effective policy must combine credible deterrence with pragmatic avenues for de-escalation. For the West, this means strict sanctions enforcement coupled with narrowly framed monitoring-for-relief proposals. For Israel, it requires balancing overt deterrence with covert disruption, while avoiding entanglement with Beijing. For Iran, the path forward is fraught: defiance may buy time domestically, but it risks deeper economic collapse and potentially devastating strikes. What is certain is that the coming months will determine whether the confrontation remains contained or escalates into another round of open war.