The Renewed Battle for Syria: Regional Perspectives on the Aleppo Offensive

The latest surge of violence in Syria has dramatically shifted the balance of power in the country’s long-running civil war. The offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with allied rebel groups, has upended the relative calm that had prevailed since 2020. With rebels capturing significant areas in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, the conflict has entered a new and dangerous phase, drawing strong reactions from key players like Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

A Renewed Offensive: The Rebels’ Bold Move

On November 27, 2024, HTS and its allies launched a sudden and widespread offensive, taking control of important territories such as Khan Sheikhoun and Maarrat al-Numan in Idlib. They also seized significant areas in Aleppo, including parts of the city itself and its airport. This marked one of the largest offensives in years, with rebels advancing southward toward the city of Hama, capturing dozens of villages along the way.

The Syrian army, caught off guard, initially lost ground but has since launched a strong counteroffensive with Russian air support. Key areas like Qalaat al-Madiq and Ma’ardas in Hama have been recaptured, and Syrian forces are regrouping to push back against further advances. Despite these efforts, the rebel offensive has shaken the Assad regime and created fresh uncertainty about Syria’s future.

Who is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a dominant Islamist militant group in Syria, originating as Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in the country. Founded in 2011, it initially followed a strict jihadist ideology but rebranded in 2016, breaking formal ties with al-Qaeda to appear more localized and legitimate. In 2017, it merged with other factions to form HTS, which now controls Idlib province, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria.

HTS acts as the de facto governing authority in Idlib, combining military control with an administrative apparatus. Despite efforts to distance itself from global jihadist movements, it remains accused of suppressing dissent and committing human rights abuses. Militarily, HTS is one of the most organized and effective rebel groups, capable of launching significant offensives, such as the recent assault on Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

HTS's relationship with Turkey is complex. While Turkey officially designates HTS as a terrorist organization, it maintains indirect links due to shared interests in countering Assad’s forces and securing Idlib as a buffer zone. HTS has reportedly benefited from Turkish border crossings for reinforcements and supplies, though Ankara denies direct support. This delicate dynamic reflects Turkey’s balancing act between managing regional security and avoiding deeper entanglements in Syria’s conflict.

Turkey’s Role: A Complex Balancing Act

Turkey has long been involved in Syria’s conflict, supporting opposition groups and maintaining troops in the north to counter Kurdish forces. However, Ankara finds itself in a delicate position:

Support for Rebels: Turkey has historically backed some of the groups now involved in the offensive, but its influence over them is uncertain. Reports suggest that Turkey may have allowed weapons and reinforcements to pass through its territory, though it denies direct involvement.

Concerns Over Refugees: The fighting threatens to displace even more people into Turkey, which already hosts millions of Syrian refugees. Turkey is trying to prevent a new humanitarian crisis on its border.

Pressuring Assad: Turkey’s strained relations with the Assad regime add another layer of complexity. By not intervening against the offensive, Ankara could be signaling its frustration with stalled normalization talks with Damascus and with Russia’s handling of previous agreements.

Russia’s Response: Defending Assad

Russia remains one of Assad’s most important allies and has reacted strongly to the rebel gains:

Military Intervention: Russian airstrikes have been a key factor in the Syrian army’s counteroffensive, targeting rebel positions and supply lines. Moscow claims to have killed hundreds of militants, and its involvement has been critical in slowing the rebel advance.

Protecting Investments: Russia has spent years building Assad’s control over much of Syria, and the current offensive threatens those gains. Moscow is determined to ensure that the territorial stability it helped create is not undone.

Broader Challenges: Russia’s attention is divided due to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which limits its ability to fully commit resources to Syria. Nevertheless, it views the rebel offensive as a direct challenge to its credibility and role in the region.

Iran’s Perspective: A Fight for the Resistance

Iran, another of Assad’s key allies, sees the conflict as part of a broader regional struggle:

Backing Assad: Iran has reaffirmed its full support for the Syrian government and military. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus to emphasize Tehran’s commitment to helping Syria repel the offensive.

Framing the Conflict: Iran views HTS and its allies as tools of U.S. and Israeli interests. It has linked the timing of the offensive to Israel’s recent ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguing that it is part of a plan to weaken the Axis of Resistance by cutting supply routes through Syria.

Unity Among Muslim Countries: Iranian leaders have called for greater solidarity among Muslim nations to counter foreign interference in Syria and resist efforts to destabilize the region.

The Humanitarian Toll

As with every major escalation in Syria’s civil war, civilians are paying the highest price. The United Nations has reported that more than 14,000 people have been displaced in just a few days, with many facing harsh winter conditions. Idlib, already overcrowded with displaced families, is struggling to cope with the influx of new arrivals. Hospitals and aid organizations are overwhelmed, and the humanitarian crisis is expected to worsen if the fighting continues.

Geopolitical Implications

The renewed violence highlights the fragile and often contradictory roles of regional and international actors in Syria:

Turkey’s Calculations: Ankara’s actions suggest it is using the conflict to strengthen its position in northern Syria and gain leverage in talks with Russia and Assad.

Russia’s Challenges: Moscow’s commitment to Assad remains strong, but the offensive underscores the limits of its ability to manage Syria’s conflict while dealing with other global challenges.

Iran’s Strategy: Tehran’s response reflects its broader goal of countering U.S. and Israeli influence in the region while ensuring that Syria remains a key part of the Axis of Resistance.

Conclusion

The recent fighting in Syria marks one of the most significant escalations in years, reshaping the dynamics of the conflict and drawing fresh attention to the roles of Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Each actor has its own interests and goals, adding layers of complexity to an already volatile situation.

While the Syrian government, with support from its allies, has managed to regain some ground, the rebel offensive demonstrates the enduring instability in the country. Without a coordinated effort to address the root causes of the conflict, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, with devastating consequences for the Syrian people and the region as a whole.