The End of Ukrainian Gas Transit and the Energy Crisis in Moldova

Introduction

The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine on January 1, 2025, has created significant geopolitical and economic repercussions across Eastern Europe, particularly affecting Slovakia, Moldova, and the breakaway region of Transnistria. Russia's actions, aimed at reshaping energy dependencies and leveraging its influence, have plunged Moldova into an energy crisis, highlighting the broader implications of Moscow's energy strategy in the region. This report examines the interconnected developments of the end of Ukrainian gas transit and the resulting energy crisis in Moldova, analyzing their causes, impacts, and strategic considerations.

The End of Ukrainian Gas Transit

On January 1, 2025, Gazprom halted gas supplies to European customers via Ukraine after Kyiv refused to renew the transit contract. Ukraine argued that continuing the transit would provide Russia with revenue that could be used to fund its war effort. The cessation of transit was widely anticipated, given Kyiv’s firm stance and Moscow’s readiness to halt shipments, despite the potential financial impact on Gazprom.

Russian President Vladimir Putin framed the issue as Europe and Ukraine acting against their own interests. He indicated that any resumption of transit would require the withdrawal of Ukraine’s lawsuits against Gazprom and a reassessment of Gazprom’s operating terms in the European market. Putin’s approach mirrors his broader strategy of leveraging energy supplies to compel Europe to engage with Russia on favorable terms.

Slovakia was one of the most affected countries by the transit halt. Prime Minister Robert Fico’s unexpected visit to Moscow in late December 2024 underscored Slovakia’s concerns about gas supply security. While the European Commission has committed to reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, alternative suppliers like Azerbaijan currently lack the capacity to fully replace Russian gas volumes.

Despite the disruption, Russia remains confident that the infrastructure for gas supply to Europe remains functional and that the current situation is reversible. Moscow’s strategy aims to keep the door open for future negotiations, anticipating that European pragmatism will eventually prevail.

The Energy Crisis in Moldova

The halt in Ukrainian gas transit has had a direct impact on Moldova, particularly in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Since January 1, Transnistria has been without Russian gas, resulting in a severe energy crisis. The Moldavskaya GRES power plant, located in Transnistria and controlled by the Russian company Inter RAO, switched to coal, causing rolling blackouts. Tens of thousands of residents in Transnistria have been left without heating or electricity, exacerbating social and economic hardships.

Russia’s refusal to reroute gas supplies via the Trans-Balkan pipeline is rooted in an unresolved debt dispute. Gazprom claims that Moldova owes $709 million, while Moldovan authorities assert that the debt is only $8.6 million. The energy crisis highlights Russia’s use of gas as a political weapon, aiming to weaken Moldova’s pro-Western government led by President Maia Sandu. Moscow’s primary goal is to erode public support for Moldova’s ruling party ahead of parliamentary elections, scheduled for later in 2025.

Moldova’s government, which ended direct purchases of Russian gas in 2022, has faced criticism for its handling of the crisis. Electricity prices in Moldova have risen significantly, placing a heavy economic burden on citizens. The government’s messaging, urging citizens to accept high prices as the “price of freedom,” has resonated with some segments of the electorate but alienated others who struggle to afford basic utilities.

Russia’s Strategic Calculations

Russia’s energy strategy in Moldova is part of a broader geopolitical calculation aimed at regaining influence in Eastern Europe. Moscow views the energy crisis as an opportunity to:

Weaken the Moldovan government’s political standing.

Foster social unrest within Moldova.

Pressure Transnistrian authorities to align more closely with Russian interests.

The Kremlin’s tactics have become more aggressive and dismissive of the humanitarian toll on Transnistria’s population. The Federal Security Service (FSB) now holds a dominant role in decision-making on Moldovan affairs, sidelining diplomatic channels.

Moscow’s goal of unifying Moldova and Transnistria under pro-Russian leadership remains unchanged. Historically, the frozen conflict in Transnistria has served as a strategic asset for Russia, preventing Moldova from fully aligning with the West. However, integrating Transnistria into Moldova under a Russia-friendly configuration would provide a more reliable safeguard against Moldova’s pro-Western trajectory.

Implications for Moldova’s Stability

The energy crisis presents significant risks to Moldova’s social and political stability. Rising energy costs and rolling blackouts have fueled dissatisfaction with the government, potentially benefiting pro-Russian opposition parties. Moldova’s parliamentary elections later in 2025 will be a critical test of the government’s resilience and its ability to maintain a pro-European course.

Transnistria’s leadership, dominated by the Sheriff business conglomerate, has maintained autonomy from Moscow despite its reliance on Russian support. However, the ongoing crisis may compel Transnistria’s authorities to align more closely with Russia’s interests, particularly if Moscow offers to resume gas supplies as aid.

Conclusion

The end of Ukrainian gas transit and the resulting energy crisis in Moldova illustrate the geopolitical complexities of energy dependencies in Eastern Europe. Russia’s actions reflect a deliberate strategy to leverage energy supplies for political influence, aiming to weaken pro-Western governments and reshape regional dynamics. Moldova’s government faces significant challenges in managing the crisis and mitigating its social and economic impacts. The outcome of Moldova’s parliamentary elections will be pivotal in determining the country’s future trajectory, as Moscow continues to exert pressure through energy diplomacy.