The Collapse of Assad’s Hold? Syria at a Critical Juncture Amid Renewed Conflict

1. Ground Reality: What’s Unfolding in Syria?

Syria’s fragile status quo has been upended by a powerful resurgence of violence, threatening President Bashar al-Assad’s control. Starting on November 27, 2024, the opposition, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive, quickly overtaking key regions such as Aleppo, Hama, and parts of Homs. The conflict has escalated to the outskirts of Damascus, creating a dire situation for the regime.

Key developments include:

Rapid Rebel Advances: Opposition forces have gained significant ground across the country, including in northern regions like Aleppo and Homs, as well as southern provinces such as Daraa, Suwayda, and Quneitra.

Regime Retreats: Syrian government forces have been forced to withdraw from multiple areas, consolidating defenses closer to the capital, Damascus.

Civilian Displacement: Tens of thousands of people have been displaced amid intensified clashes, with minorities fearing the potential for extremist rule under HTS or repression by Turkish-backed factions such as the Syrian National Army (SNA).

This sudden escalation has exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities and reignited Syria’s long-standing crisis.

2. How is Assad Responding to the Crisis?

Despite growing challenges, President Bashar al-Assad has attempted to project an image of stability. He remains in Damascus, dismissing rumors of his departure while emphasizing his role in upholding the nation’s governance. However, his responses highlight a reactive and embattled regime:

Military Strategy: The Syrian government has focused on defensive measures, redeploying forces to protect Damascus and conducting airstrikes on opposition supply lines in Homs and Hama. Yet these efforts have proven insufficient to halt the opposition’s momentum.

Reliance on Allies: Assad has leaned heavily on Iran and Russia for support. While both have expressed solidarity, their actual commitments have been constrained by other regional and global priorities.

Narrative Management: The regime continues to frame the uprising as a foreign-sponsored conspiracy, blaming Israel and Western powers for supporting extremist groups like HTS.
Assad’s limited options and overreliance on external allies underscore the regime’s precarious position.

3. Geopolitical Players: The Views of Russia, Iran, and Turkey

The regional powers involved in the Astana Format—Russia, Iran, and Turkey—have significant influence over Syria’s future, though their goals diverge:

Russia:

Russia views Syria as strategically vital, maintaining its naval base in Tartus and asserting influence in the Mediterranean.
However, its resources are stretched thin due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, limiting its ability to intervene decisively.
Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have emphasized the need for political negotiations rather than escalating military operations.

Iran:

Iran remains a steadfast supporter of Assad, viewing Syria as central to its resistance axis against Israel and the US.
Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reaffirmed their commitment to assisting Syria militarily and diplomatically. However, Iran is cautious about overextending itself given its involvement in Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq.
Tehran has called for political dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition factions but continues to focus on counterterrorism operations.

Turkey:

Turkey has long supported Syrian opposition groups, including the SNA, and has actively facilitated their recent advances in northern Syria.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed support for the opposition’s progress, framing it as a step toward restoring peace and stability in Syria. Turkey also seeks to establish a buffer zone to protect its borders and counter the PKK/YPG presence.

Ankara has positioned itself as a key actor in determining Syria’s future, leveraging its military and diplomatic influence.
While these powers converge on the need for dialogue, their competing interests complicate unified action.

4. What Lies Ahead for Syria? Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: Regime Collapse

If Homs falls, Damascus could become directly vulnerable, forcing Assad into concessions or possibly leading to his regime’s collapse. This scenario could embolden regional and international actors to reconsider their stance on Syria.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Stalemate

The fractured nature of the opposition—divided among HTS, SNA, and Kurdish factions—may hinder its ability to deliver a decisive blow, resulting in a protracted conflict and worsening humanitarian conditions.

Scenario 3: Regional Mediation

Efforts under the Astana Format, involving Turkey, Russia, and Iran, could pave the way for negotiations. However, mistrust between factions and the regime may slow progress.

Scenario 4: Broader Regional Escalation

The involvement of neighboring countries like Turkey and Israel could intensify, with these actors prioritizing their strategic interests in northern and southern Syria, potentially escalating the conflict’s regional dimensions.

Conclusion: A Fragile Future for Syria

The resurgence of violence in Syria marks a critical turning point for the Assad regime. Rebel advances have revealed the regime’s waning control, while international powers struggle to mediate effectively amidst competing agendas. Although calls for political dialogue under the Astana Format offer a glimmer of hope, the path forward is fraught with challenges.

Whether Assad survives this latest crisis or succumbs to mounting pressure remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Syria is at a crossroads, and the decisions made in the coming weeks will shape the nation’s future for years to come.