Rwanda's Shadow War: How M23's Takeover of Goma is Reshaping Africa

Introduction

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been plunged into one of its worst crises in decades as the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has seized control of the key city of Goma and continues its advance in the eastern regions of the country. This crisis has provoked significant regional and international responses, exposing deep geopolitical divisions and the growing instability of the Great Lakes region. The conflict is fueled by a complex mix of historical grievances, regional power struggles, and competition over the DRC’s vast mineral wealth.

What Happened?

The latest escalation began with a well-coordinated military offensive by the M23 rebel group, which, backed by thousands of Rwandan troops, swiftly captured Goma, a strategic city in North Kivu. Reports indicate that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan soldiers crossed into Congolese territory alongside M23 fighters, overwhelming the Congolese military (FARDC) and forcing them to retreat. As M23 consolidated its control over Goma, it also moved further south into South Kivu, taking control of key localities such as Kiniezire and Mukwidja.

The humanitarian impact has been devastating. Over 700 people have been killed, and nearly 3,000 injured since fighting intensified in late January 2025. The conflict has also displaced over 500,000 people, with humanitarian organizations warning of an impending disaster as food, water, and medical supplies become increasingly scarce. The United Nations and other humanitarian agencies report that Goma is experiencing severe shortages, while hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties.

How It Happened?

The origins of this conflict date back decades. The M23 rebel group, officially known as the March 23 Movement, was formed in 2012 by former members of the Congolese Tutsi-led National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP). The group’s grievances originally stemmed from the Congolese government’s failure to implement a 2009 peace agreement that promised better political representation for the Tutsi minority. However, M23 has since evolved into a proxy force for Rwanda, which has long sought to exert influence over eastern Congo, both for security reasons and to exploit its mineral wealth.

Rwanda’s involvement in the conflict has been repeatedly documented by the United Nations and Western intelligence agencies. Kigali has provided arms, training, and direct military support to M23, enabling it to mount sophisticated and highly effective operations against the FARDC. Rwanda claims that its intervention is necessary to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu militia operating in eastern Congo that has historical ties to the perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide. However, many analysts argue that Rwanda’s true motive is economic—securing access to valuable resources such as coltan, gold, and rare earth minerals, which are crucial for global tech industries.

Who Are the Involved Parties and What Are Their Objectives?

Several actors are deeply involved in the crisis, each with distinct and often conflicting objectives:

M23 and Rwanda

M23, heavily backed by Rwanda, seeks to establish dominance over eastern DRC, potentially carving out an autonomous region under Rwandan influence. The rebel group claims to be defending the rights of Congolese Tutsis but has been accused of widespread human rights abuses, including mass killings, rapes, and forced displacements. Rwanda, under President Paul Kagame, aims to maintain control over resource-rich areas and weaken the Congolese government’s hold over eastern provinces.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

President Félix Tshisekedi has vowed a “strong and coordinated response” but faces significant military and political challenges. The FARDC is poorly equipped and demoralized, struggling to counter M23’s well-trained forces. Tshisekedi has also accused the international community of failing to act decisively, warning that the crisis could escalate into a full-scale regional war if left unchecked.

Regional Actors: Uganda, Burundi, and the East African Community (EAC)

Uganda, which has historical ties to both Rwanda and the DRC, has taken a defensive stance, strengthening its military presence along the border to prevent spillover violence. Burundi has similarly reinforced its military posture. The East African Community (EAC) has urged the DRC to engage in dialogue with M23, a proposal that Kinshasa has firmly rejected, viewing it as legitimizing a rebel group engaged in an invasion.

France, the European Union, and Western Powers

France has taken a more active diplomatic stance, calling for Rwanda’s withdrawal from Congolese territory. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot traveled to Kigali and Kinshasa, pressing for an end to hostilities. The European Union has signaled that it may impose sanctions on Rwanda, while Belgium has formally requested EU action against Kigali. The UK has also threatened to reassess its aid to Rwanda in light of its involvement in the conflict.

The United Nations and the African Union

The UN Security Council has condemned external interventions in the DRC but has stopped short of explicitly naming Rwanda. The African Union has convened emergency meetings to address the crisis, but consensus remains elusive. Some African nations, including Algeria, have opposed direct accusations against Rwanda, highlighting the geopolitical complexities at play.

International Reactions and Consequences

The crisis in the DRC has exposed deep divisions within the international community. While France, the EU, and the US have called for Rwanda’s withdrawal, they have yet to impose significant punitive measures against Kagame’s regime. China and Russia, which have substantial economic interests in the DRC, have abstained from condemning Rwanda, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, the growing anti-French sentiment in Africa, particularly in former French colonies such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has weakened France’s influence on the continent. This sentiment has been fueled by what many African leaders perceive as France’s selective support for certain regimes while condemning others. The French Senate recently released a scathing report criticizing President Macron’s African policy as a series of “failures” that have alienated key allies and diminished France’s standing.

Future Implications

The crisis in eastern Congo threatens to further destabilize the Great Lakes region. If M23 continues its advance toward Bukavu and beyond, the conflict could draw in additional regional actors, increasing the risk of a broader war. The failure of international diplomatic efforts may embolden Rwanda to push further into Congolese territory, potentially leading to prolonged occupation and annexation efforts.

Without decisive international action, including targeted sanctions against Rwanda and increased military support for the Congolese government, the situation is unlikely to improve. The humanitarian toll will continue to mount, with millions at risk of displacement, starvation, and violence.

Conclusion

The crisis in the DRC is a complex geopolitical conflict driven by historical tensions, economic interests, and regional power struggles. M23’s takeover of Goma, facilitated by Rwanda, has exposed the weakness of the Congolese state and the inability of the international community to enforce meaningful consequences for aggression. As the conflict intensifies, it remains to be seen whether regional and global actors will take the necessary steps to prevent further bloodshed or whether eastern Congo will continue to be a battleground for external powers seeking to exploit its resources.