Russia’s Fragile War Effort: Strategic Vulnerabilities and Global Implications

Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's strategic and economic challenges amidst its ongoing war in Ukraine, focusing on its military reliance on North Korea, internal vulnerabilities, and the impact of arson attacks and shadow fleet operations. It highlights how sustained pressure from international actors has strained Russia's war economy and explores the implications of these vulnerabilities for both Russia and its adversaries.

North Korea’s Role in Russia’s War

North Korea has sent approximately 12,000 elite troops, primarily from the "Storm Corps," to support Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. This decision appears to have originated from Pyongyang, with North Korean forces actively engaging in combat in Russia’s Kursk region. However, these troops face significant challenges, including high casualties and unfamiliarity with modern warfare tactics like drone use.

In exchange for its support, North Korea receives critical resources such as food, fuel, and financial compensation, which help the regime withstand Western sanctions. Additionally, North Korea is seeking access to advanced military technologies from Russia, including intercontinental ballistic missile designs and satellite systems. The partnership provides North Korean forces with rare battlefield experience, offering insights into modern combat, particularly the use of drones and electronic warfare. However, the risks for North Korea are substantial, as returning troops may bring back not only combat expertise but also potentially subversive ideas and exposure to the relative wealth of Russia and Ukraine.

For Russia, the partnership underscores its increasing reliance on unconventional allies and external support to sustain its military operations. This relationship reflects the broader geopolitical dynamics reshaping alliances in the context of the war.

Arson Attacks as a Tool of Psychological Warfare

Russia has experienced a surge in arson attacks targeting banks, post offices, and police cars, with 280 incidents reported since the war began. Initially interpreted as anti-war protests, these attacks are now largely attributed to manipulation by telephone scammers. Perpetrators, often vulnerable individuals such as pensioners, claim they were coerced into these acts through psychological manipulation and promises of financial restitution.

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of orchestrating these attacks as part of a campaign of psychological warfare. Ukrainian call centers, known for targeting Russian citizens with scams, are suspected of involvement, with some claims suggesting links to Ukrainian intelligence services. These tactics exploit Russia’s corruption and the availability of citizen data on the dark web, blending criminal and strategic motives.

Russia’s response has been swift and punitive, with harsh legal measures and restrictions on internet telephony to prevent further incidents. However, these measures do little to address the underlying vulnerabilities exposed by such campaigns, which highlight the role of hybrid warfare in modern conflicts.

Economic Struggles in Russia

Russia’s economy is under significant strain, driven by the prolonged war and the impact of international sanctions. Consumer prices have risen by over 33% since 2021 due to higher import costs and labor shortages, while the population continues to decline due to low birth rates, high mortality, emigration, and war casualties. The war economy has led to a reliance on central bank money printing to finance military spending, which has further fueled inflation and weakened the rouble. The currency’s devaluation, particularly against the Chinese yuan, has exacerbated import costs and undermined economic stability.

Despite relatively strong GDP growth of 3.5% in 2024, this performance was almost entirely reliant on war-related sectors, with little to no broader economic growth expected in 2025. Russia’s reliance on domestic borrowing and limited access to international capital markets have constrained its fiscal options, further highlighting the unsustainability of its current economic trajectory.

Shadow Fleet and Oil Sanctions

Russia’s shadow fleet, comprising uninsured, aging tankers, plays a key role in circumventing the $60-per-barrel oil-price cap imposed by the EU and G7. These vessels transport oil covertly, undermining sanctions and sustaining Russian revenues. The fleet poses risks not only to the enforcement of sanctions but also to regional security, as evidenced by a Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging undersea infrastructure in the Baltic.

In response, European nations are increasing oversight, requiring proof of insurance for vessels in critical waterways such as the English Channel and the Gulf of Finland. Stricter enforcement of sanctions and maritime regulations is aimed at curtailing the fleet’s operations and further restricting Russia’s ability to finance its war effort.

Geopolitical Implications

Russia’s reliance on external support, hybrid warfare tactics, and a strained economy reflect its deepening vulnerabilities. While it has managed to sustain its military production, this has come at the expense of broader economic stability and public welfare. The international community’s sustained pressure, through sanctions, military support for Ukraine, and enforcement of maritime laws, is forcing Russia to allocate resources to counteract these challenges.

At the same time, these vulnerabilities underscore the evolving nature of modern conflicts, where psychological, economic, and hybrid warfare play increasingly central roles. For Ukraine and its allies, maintaining this pressure is crucial to ensuring Russia faces mounting costs for its aggression.

Conclusion

Russia’s war effort is increasingly characterized by its reliance on unconventional alliances, hybrid warfare tactics, and an unsustainable economic model. These factors present opportunities for democracies to exploit its vulnerabilities, forcing a recalibration of its priorities and potentially paving the way for diplomatic resolution. However, the risks associated with these strategies highlight the complexity of achieving a lasting and just peace in the region.